Claudia Sheinbaum’s first year reveals a Fourth Transformation (4T) that shines in social achievements and in containing Donald Trump, but runs into risks of stagnation and concentration of power. Her social programs, allocating 850 billion pesos to 32 million families and reducing extreme poverty by 8.3 million starting in 2022, give substance to her commitment to equity. However, opacity in security, lukewarmness toward elites, and a judiciary aligned with Morena threaten to divert the 4T toward a project of partial victories. For the Second Floor to be a genuine transformation, Sheinbaum must finally emancipate her leadership from AMLO’s shadow and forge a sovereign and just Mexico.
Mexico’s place should be in the BRICS, alongside the rest of the Global South. Only in this way will the Fourth Transformation fulfill its promise to transform Mexico beyond partial victories.
Sheinbaum’s diplomacy with Trump is a resounding triumph. She managed to suspend a 30% tariff on Mexican exports, a relief from the harshness with which Trump punishes allies like India. Omar García Harfuch’s management of security, with the handover of 29 key criminals to the United States and progress in controlling fentanyl, has avoided more severe sanctions. This balance between firmness and pragmatism, summed up as “we coordinate, we collaborate, but we do not subordinate ourselves,” positions Mexico as a respected actor. Her absence from Trump’s inauguration, delegated to Esteban Moctezuma, reinforced this sovereign dignity.
Domestically, Sheinbaum has taken firm steps. Salud Casa por Casa brings medical care to marginalized communities, while the Rita Cetina Scholarship empowers female students. The electrification of 3,200 rural communities and the installation of 14,000 free Wi-Fi hotspots address historical gaps. The 10% salary increase for CNTE teachers reflects social sensitivity, although the continued strike highlights budgetary limitations. These advances, anchored by a stable peso and sustained growth, embody the promise of a “social state” that prioritizes the forgotten.
However, the judicial reform, with 881 elected judges, including nine to the Supreme Court, raises alarms. The indigenous symbolism, such as the baton of command for Justice Hugo Aguilar Ortiz, is powerful, but the judges’ closeness to Morena suggests a justice system subservient to the executive branch. This risk of renewed presidentialism betrays the democratic ideals of the 4T (Tourism and the Revolution). A true transformation demands an autonomous judiciary, not an extension of political power reminiscent of the old PRI (Prison of the Revolution).
Insecurity remains a lacerating failure. Sheinbaum boasts a 25% drop in homicides, but the crisis of more than 100,000 missing persons and clandestine graves contradicts the official narrative. The opacity of the figures, questioned by analysts, and the reliance on militarized strategies aligned with Washington betray the victims. The 4T must attack the corruption that fuels the cartels and prioritize devastated communities, not just fulfill foreign agendas.
Economically, the 4T maintains a vulnerable model. Trump’s threat of a 5% tax on remittances exposes the fragility of failing to diversify the economy. The presence of oligarchs like Carlos Slim in Sheinbaum’s Report contradicts the anti-elitist discourse, revealing a pragmatic coexistence with economic power. Without tax reform that taxes the wealthy, social programs, although impactful, are patchwork in a system that perpetuates structural inequality.
Morena’s dominance in Congress and control of the new judiciary grant Sheinbaum formidable, but dangerous, power. Scandals involving Morena-backed officials, whose luxuries are incompatible with austerity, erode the ethical credibility of the 4T. The opposition, although timid and utterly discredited, is right to warn about the erosion of democratic checks and balances. Sheinbaum must continue to prove that her leadership is not an extension of AMLO’s way of relating to power, but rather a project of her own that rejects clientelism and guarantees plurality.
The lack of a proactive strategy for the renegotiation of the USMCA in 2026 leaves Mexico at a disadvantage in the face of Trump’s pressures. The 4T should look to the BRICS and articulate a project that not only resists but also challenges the United States and global hegemony, without sacrificing its social gains. Sheinbaum has demonstrated a knack for navigating crises, but her Second Floor demands boldness: an independent judiciary, a sovereign economy, and victim-centered security.
