Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products included in the free trade agreement will not end until it destroys the dream of Salinas, Zedillo, and their neoliberal teams. A dream that López Obrador irremediably embraced in recent years, and which Claudia Sheinbaum has pointed out as the “best alternative” for economic development for Mexico in the coming years, but which seems to have encountered an insurmountable obstacle: MAGA.
Trump has repeatedly criticized the higher tariffs that various countries such as Mexico, Canada, and the European Union impose on the United States, such as those on automobiles (10%) and dairy products (50%), compared to the lower tariffs the United States imposes on imports. However, according to the World Trade Organization, average tariff levels between countries are relatively similar.
The Trump administration could also consider non-tariff barriers, such as the value-added tax (VAT), as unfair trade obstacles. The president has threatened to impose 25% tariffs worldwide, but specific details have yet to be revealed.
According to analysts, reciprocal tariffs could apply to all imports or only to certain key sectors. It is also unclear whether they would be implemented immediately or if there would be a grace period for negotiations. Furthermore, they could be cumulative or replace existing tariffs.
According to The Economist, “The destruction of the USMCA and the start of a trade war could have catastrophic consequences for the US and global economies, unleashing an inflationary spiral,” although other analysts point out that this is merely a threat that will be confirmed differently based on domestic interests.