These are the three possible scenarios of the Iran-Israel conflict, based on the belligerent statements of the racist, Zionist, and misogynistic criminal president, Donald Trump, and the United States’ historical support for the genocidal state of Israel:
Scenario 1: Devastating Regional Escalation (the most negative)
Israel launches a massive attack against Iranian nuclear facilities, such as Natanz, triggering an Iranian response with ballistic missiles and attacks by Hezbollah, which has 100,000 rockets from Lebanon. The United States intervenes with aircraft carriers, closing the Strait of Hormuz (20% of the world’s oil), causing a global economic crisis. Former nuclear weapons inspector Scott Ritter warns: “If Israel hits Iran, there is no going back; it will be all-out war.” Retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor adds: “The US cannot win a protracted war in the region without catastrophic costs.” Israel faces internal protests and the risk of nuclear retaliation in Tel Aviv.
Probability: High if Israel acts without negotiation.
Impact: Regional economic collapse, energy crisis, risk of global war.
Scenario 2: Protracted Asymmetric Warfare (Intermediate)
The conflict is limited to asymmetric confrontations: Iran uses cyberattacks, drones, and proxies like Hezbollah against Israel, which responds with targeted bombings in Syria and Lebanon. The United States maintains $3.8 billion in military aid to Israel, while Russia and China provide logistical support to Iran. John Mearsheimer notes: “This war of attrition benefits no one, but no one gives in.” Jeffrey Sachs criticizes: “The US perpetuates chaos by failing to mediate.” Oil prices rise to $100-$120 per barrel, and both countries suffer economically.
Probability: Most likely due to internal constraints.
Impact: Regional instability, economic pressure.
Scenario 3: Negotiation and de-escalation (most positive)
Mediation by the EU or China achieves an indirect agreement, with Iran returning to the JCPOA in exchange for sanctions relief. Israel reduces operations in Lebanon, and the United States limits arms shipments (2,000 guided bombs in 2024). Charles Freeman emphasizes: “Diplomacy is the only way out to avoid regional collapse.” Ritter adds: “Iran will negotiate if its sovereignty is respected.” Iran resumes exports (2.5 million barrels per day), stabilizing the region.
Probability: Low due to mutual distrust.
Impact: Economic relief, latent tensions.
The most likely resolution to the conflict is a prolonged asymmetric war with stalemate, as both countries avoid full escalation due to internal constraints, but mutual distrust and US support for Israel ($3.8 billion annually) preclude diplomacy. Trump, despite advocating for a nuclear deal and saying that “Iran and Israel should make a deal,” has also intensified his rhetoric with calls for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” diminishing the prospects for an immediate de-escalation. The lack of effective negotiations, such as those canceled in Oman, and pressure from Israel to continue attacks suggest that the conflict will remain a state of intermittent hostilities without a clear short-term solution.