Omar García Harfuch, Mexico’s current Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, is emerging as a polarizing figure in the political landscape ahead of the 2030 presidential elections. His track record, marked by a 25% reduction in intentional homicides since October 2024 according to official data, positions him as a strong contender within Morena. However, his rise is not without shadows: forced disappearances are on the rise across the country, there are vague accusations of ties to organized crime, and his alleged involvement in crafting the “historical truth” of the Ayotzinapa case continues to haunt him. While unproven, these allegations could undermine his credibility among an increasingly critical electorate.
Harfuch’s relationship with the Trump administration, which began in January 2025, is a key factor. His collaboration with U.S. intelligence agencies like the DEA and the extradition of 29 drug lords, including Rafael Caro Quintero, have earned him support in Republican circles. Figures like Donald Trump Jr. have praised his “tough on crime” approach against cartels, which could translate into financial and political backing from the United States. However, this closeness could alienate nationalist sectors in Mexico, wary of foreign intervention in security matters.
The 2020 assassination attempt attributed to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) bolsters his image as a courageous figure against organized crime but also exposes his vulnerability. Surviving 414 gunshots, losing two bodyguards and a bystander, the event thrust him into the public eye as a symbol of resilience. Yet, rumors of collusion with criminal groups, as alleged by journalist Anabel Hernández and a Guerreros Unidos witness, fuel distrust. Though unproven, these accusations could be weaponized by opponents to question his integrity.
The Ayotzinapa case is perhaps Harfuch’s greatest liability. Military documents and statements from Alejandro Encinas place him in key meetings in Iguala in 2014, where the “historical truth” that covered up the disappearance of the 43 student teachers was allegedly crafted. Although Harfuch denies direct involvement, claiming he was in Michoacán at the time, the perception of his role persists. This episode could be a lethal weapon in the hands of political rivals, especially in a context where victims and their families continue to demand justice.
In terms of results, Harfuch’s tenure shows mixed outcomes. While intentional homicides have significantly decreased, averaging 65.3 per day in April 2025, a 444% increase in forced disappearances in Mexico City between 2021 and 2024 raises serious doubts about the effectiveness of his strategy. This rise, noted by experts like David Saucedo, suggests that organized crime has adapted, opting for disappearances over homicides to evade statistics. This trend could undermine his narrative of success if not addressed decisively.
His potential opponents in 2030 include prominent figures within Morena, such as Marcelo Ebrard, who would need to demonstrate results in the difficult renegotiation of the USMCA.
Harfuch’s strength lies in his image of police efficiency and his close ties to Claudia Sheinbaum, who has unwaveringly supported him. His ability to forge alliances with key figures, such as the director of the National Intelligence Center, Francisco Almazán, and his control over strategic security areas, make him a formidable operator. However, his past in the Federal Police during Felipe Calderón’s administration and corruption allegations could be exploited by adversaries both within and outside Morena, especially in a polarized political context.
Public perception of Harfuch as a “hero” after the CJNG attack clashes with accusations linking him to organized crime. While some see him as a leader capable of confronting cartels, others view him as part of a corrupt system perpetuating impunity. Social media reflects this divide: some X users praise him as a necessary “security czar,” while others, like journalist Denise Dresser, criticize his record and the rise in disappearances. This polarization could define his viability as a candidate, depending on how he manages his public narrative.
U.S. support, particularly under the Trump administration, could be a double-edged sword. While it strengthens his international standing, Trump’s rhetoric about military intervention in Mexico to combat cartels could alienate Mexican voters. Harfuch will need to balance this relationship to avoid being perceived as a puppet of foreign interests, a risk already highlighted by critical analysts. Bilateral cooperation, such as Operation Northern Border, which seized thousands of weapons and drugs, is a tangible achievement but also a point of political friction.
In conclusion, Harfuch’s likelihood of becoming Morena’s presidential candidate in 2030 is high but not guaranteed. His security expertise, alliance with Sheinbaum, and U.S. backing position him as a favorite, but the Ayotzinapa accusations, rumors of criminal ties, and the rise in disappearances are significant hurdles. He will face fierce internal competition and must convince a skeptical electorate that his past does not define his future. The path to Los Pinos will be a trial by fire for this police officer who survived bullets but still must navigate the ballots.