In July 2025, the alliance between Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump is reactivated amidst heightened geopolitical tension, with the former Brazilian president facing trial for an attempted coup and Trump wielding 50% tariffs as a political weapon. The trial of Bolsonaro, accused of orchestrating an assault on democracy after his defeat in 2022, is a defining moment for Brazil. Trump, in a letter to Lula, calls the process a “witch hunt,” demanding its end under threat of economic sanctions. This intervention is a blatant act of neocolonialism, designed to protect an ideological ally. The maneuver seeks to subdue Brazil while reinforcing the authoritarian narrative of both leaders.
The BRICS summit in Rio, July 6-7, 2025, escalated the conflict. Brazil, under Lula’s leadership, promoted 126 commitments to a multipolar world, challenging the dominance of the dollar. Trump responded by threatening additional 10% tariffs on the BRICS countries for their “anti-American” stance. This event is celebrated as a step toward the emancipation of the Global South. However, Trump’s tariffs reveal a desperate attempt to preserve US hegemony.
Brazil’s relationship with China, strengthened by agreements such as a $27.69 billion currency swap, is another affront to Trump. In May 2025, the two countries signed pacts on trade, technology, and sustainability, with China absorbing 40% of Brazil’s oil. These ties, according to Reuters, position Brazil as a key player in a multipolar world. This diversification is applauded, but there are warnings about the risk of trading one dependency for another. Lula’s strategy contrasts with Bolsonaro’s subservience to Trump’s interests.
Bolsonaro’s trial exposes the scars of his administration, marked by denialism and polarization. His attempts to delegitimize the 2022 elections, inspired by Trump’s 2021 assault on the Capitol, are a reminder of his contempt for democracy. Both leaders used disinformation to consolidate power, from downplaying the pandemic to attacking institutions. This trial is an opportunity to heal Brazil. But Trump’s intervention threatens to undermine justice.
Trump’s tariffs, which would take effect on August 1, 2025, have already impacted Brazilian assets, according to Bloomberg. This economic coercion not only seeks to save Bolsonaro, but also to punish Brazil for its leadership in the BRICS and its alliance with China. Lula faces the challenge of resisting without compromising progress on the global stage. Brazil’s response will be crucial to its future.
The relationship between Bolsonaro and Trump is not just a far-right friendship; it is a political project that threatens Brazil’s autonomy. Both leaders, with their history of divisive rhetoric, have legitimized hatred and weakened democratic institutions. The left sees BRICS and ties with China as a path to a more just global order, but warns of the risks of new dependencies. Trump’s pressure is an attempt to perpetuate an unequal system. Brazil, at this crossroads, must defend its sovereignty.
This clash transcends the personal and reflects a world in transformation. While Bolsonaro faces justice, Trump uses economic power to impose his will, but Brazil, with Lula at the helm, is committed to a multipolar future. The left celebrates this resistance but recognizes the fragility of a country caught between powers. The outcome of the trial and the response to the tariffs will mark Brazil’s course. In this power play, sovereignty is at stake.