What would the new trade agreement between Mexico and the United States look like, after Presidents Donald Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to suspend the 30% tariff increase on Mexican exports for 90 days?
The design of the final trade agreement, which will be negotiated in the next 90 days, will likely revolve around three axes: maintaining USMCA exemptions, reducing the trade deficit, and strengthening security cooperation. These actions would seek to reduce the US trade deficit, a Trump obsession, without compromising Mexican sovereignty.
So far, Mexico has made concessions in two areas: trade and security. In trade, the elimination of non-tariff barriers, which entails streamlining customs processes and reviewing restrictions affecting the import of US products, such as sanitary and technical permits.
In security, the deployment of the National Guard, in response to Trump’s pressure to show results against drug trafficking. Mexico has already intensified operations, with thousands of arrests of cartel agents and seizures of fentanyl. Sheinbaum has also proposed countering arms trafficking from the United States, a commitment Trump accepted but which has not been prioritized in his narrative.
The USMCA, which covers 87% of Mexican exports, will remain the basis, but Mexico could accept export quotas in sensitive sectors such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles to avoid additional tariffs.
To address the deficit, Mexico could promote US investments, such as those of automotive companies, and facilitate the relocation of supply chains from Asia, an issue Sheinbaum has already raised with Trump. Regarding security, the agreement could formalize intelligence sharing and joint patrols on the border, without allowing US military incursions, a red line for Mexico.
The final outcome will depend on Mexico’s ability to diversify its trade strategy. Mexico must accelerate Plan Mexico, which includes digitizing production processes and seeking alternative markets such as China, the main importer of Mexican copper. However, Mexico’s dependence on the US market, which absorbed $219 billion in Mexican exports in the first five months of 2025, limits its options.
A successful agreement would maintain preferential access to the US market but could include Mexican commitments to increase imports of US goods, such as machinery or agricultural products, and tighten border controls.
The challenge for Sheinbaum will be balancing Trump’s demands with domestic pressure to defend sovereignty. If Mexico achieves an agreement that preserves the USMCA, reduces uncertainty, and avoids new tariffs, it could strengthen its position as a key trading partner. The negotiation will be an exercise in pragmatism in a high-pressure environment.