Mexico is experiencing a disturbing contradiction: intentional homicides have decreased, but forced disappearances are increasing.
Official data confirm a reduction in violent deaths of up to 25.8% between 2024 and 2025, falling from 86.9 to 64.5 victims per day. However, disappearances have increased by 9% over the same period, with 125,803 cases recorded through March 2025, according to the National Registry of Missing and Unlocated Persons (RNPDNO). This disparity raises questions about the true nature of violence in the country.
Civil organizations such as Causa en Común warn that the drop in homicides could be misleading. The reclassification of crimes, such as registering intentional homicides as negligent homicides or “other crimes against life,” inflates the statistics on disappearances. In Mexico City, for example, homicides fell 40% between 2019 and 2024, but disappearances increased by an alarming 200%.
The hypothesis that cartels hide murders through cremations or drug graves is gaining strength. Since the bodies are not found, the deaths are not registered as homicides, but as disappearances, which could explain the discrepancy. This practice, although not quantified for 2024-2025, is a well-known method used by criminal groups to evade justice.
The arrival of Donald Trump to the US presidency in 2025 has added a new factor. His declaration of Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations and his crackdown on fentanyl have put pressure on these groups, who may be turning to more discreet methods, such as disappearances, to maintain control without attracting attention.
Trump’s “America First” policy, with 25% tariffs and the “Remain in Mexico” program, strains relations with Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, which insists on cooperation without interference. Although Mexico has intensified drug seizures, the flow of weapons from the United States continues to fuel cartel violence.
This trend suggests that the reduction in homicides does not necessarily reflect a safer country. The disappearances, which are growing at a rate of 57.6 cases per day, are a reminder that violence transforms, not disappears. The families of the victims, trapped in uncertainty, are the human face of this crisis.
International pressure from the United States may be pushing the cartels toward more covert practices, but the underlying problem persists: drug demand in the north and arms trafficking to the south. Without addressing these causes, the disappearances will continue to be the shadow of a supposed improvement in security.